FIRE Calculator

Estimate when financial independence arrives: a monthly compounding simulation, the 25× rule FIRE number, a Coast-FIRE figure and lean/fat variants.

The simulation runs locally in your browser. Your money numbers never leave your device.

FIRE number (25× expenses)
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Years to FIRE
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Coast FIRE number
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Amount that, untouched, compounds to your FIRE number by 65
Flavors of FIRE — years to reach
Lean (20×) —Standard (25×) —Fat (30×) —
Assumptions

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Returns are not guaranteed: real markets swing year to year, and a bad stretch right around your finish line (sequence-of-returns risk) can move these dates more than the averages suggest.

Taxes, fees and employer matches are ignored — treat every figure as an estimate in today’s dollars, not a plan.

This is an arithmetic toy for planning conversations, not financial advice. A fee-only planner can adapt the math to your real tax and income situation.

How It Works

The tool simulates your portfolio month by month in today’s money. It takes your entered return and subtracts inflation to get a real monthly rate — 7% nominal with 3% inflation leaves about 3.9% real — then repeats: balance = balance × (1 + real rate) + monthly contribution, until the balance reaches your FIRE number (or 70 simulated years pass). With the defaults of $50,000 saved and $1,000/month invested at 3.9% real, the 25× rule on $24,000 spending gives a target of $600,000, crossed at about month 290 — roughly 24 years.

Why 25× = the 4% rule
Your FIRE number is the portfolio from which you plan to withdraw every year without exhausting it. A 4% safe withdrawal rate is the reciprocal of 25: $24,000 ÷ 0.04 = $600,000 = 25 × annual spending. The 4% figure comes from historical portfolio simulations — the widely cited Trinity study — and this tool also shows the 20× (5%) and 30× (3.33%) variants so you can see how sensitive the answer is.
The Coast FIRE formula
Coast asks the simulation in reverse: how much today compounds to the FIRE number by age 65 with no further contributions? That is FIRE number ÷ (1 + real rate)^(years to 65 × 12). Reach that amount early and work becomes optional — the portfolio coasts the rest of the way on growth alone.
Contributions vs returns
Early on, contributions do most of the lifting: in year one of the default scenario your own deposits add several times what growth contributes. Late, the picture flips — the final years are dominated by compounding on a large balance. That is why cutting your savings rate hurts the endgame far more than it looks, and why time in the market is the fire’s cheapest fuel.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the 4% rule actually safe forever?

It is a robust rule of thumb, not a guarantee. It comes from studies (widely cited as the Trinity research) that replayed historical US stock-and-bond portfolios: withdrawing 4% of the starting balance, adjusted for inflation, survived most 30-year retirements. Bigger starting portfolios support slightly more, and skeptics point out that longer retirements, worse sequences of returns or lower forward returns may call for 3.25–3.5% instead. This tool keeps 25× (the 4% reciprocal) as the standard and shows 20× and 30× around it so you can see the sensitivity yourself.

Does this include my pension or Social Security?

No — the simulation only grows the savings and contributions you enter. If you expect other income in retirement, reduce your annual expenses by roughly that amount before entering it: a 25,000-dollar pension covering half your spending effectively halves the gap the portfolio must fill.

What exactly is Coast FIRE?

Coast FIRE is the point where your portfolio, left completely untouched, would compound to your full FIRE number by a target age (we use 65 here). You keep working but stop saving — contributions are no longer what builds the number, growth is. The card shows how much you would need today to be at that point.

Are these returns guaranteed?

Absolutely not. The constant real return is a planning assumption, not a promise: real markets swing year to year, and a bad stretch right before or after you stop contributing (sequence-of-returns risk) hurts more than the average suggests. Treat every number on this page as an estimate — not financial advice.

Is anything uploaded to a server?

No. Every figure — your savings, contributions, expenses and results — is computed locally in your browser with plain JavaScript. Nothing leaves your device, and there is no account and no network request attached to a calculation.